AGP Executive Report

Latvia’s Election Watch: Latvia’s pre-election campaign period for the Saeima starts today, with KNAB warning parties to follow strict rules on political advertising and to label paid content clearly. Riga’s EBRD Moment: The EBRD annual meeting in Riga continues to shape regional priorities, including expanded InvestEU guarantees for higher-risk projects and ongoing support for conflict-affected economies. Defense & Deterrence: Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže urged NATO to keep collective defense and deterrence at the center, stressing deployable forces, resilient supply chains, and investments in air defense and drones. Energy Storage Push: Sunly and Rolls-Royce signed a major battery storage deal for Latvia, aiming to solve the “realization” problem as solar output can drive prices very low. EU Visa Pressure: The European Commission is set to propose targeted Schengen visa restrictions for Russian citizens next year, responding to calls from a coalition including Latvia. Baltic Pride in Tallinn: Baltic Pride drew crowds in Tallinn with the theme “Silence Won’t Defeat Hate,” continuing the rotating regional march tradition.

EBRD in Riga, EU finance push: The EBRD and the EU expanded InvestEU guarantees by up to €478.4m, plus €11.4m for advisory work, to help fund higher-risk green, digital and infrastructure projects across EU countries where the bank operates. Latvia energy storage deal: Sunly and Rolls-Royce Power Systems signed an agreement for four large battery energy storage systems in Latvia, totaling 490 MWh (with a possible 790 MWh regional expansion), with Rolls-Royce as main contractor and Valmiera’s first unit due in early 2027. Latvia in EU visa debate: Latvia joined a group of EU states urging tougher Schengen visa rules for Russian tourists, arguing that holiday travel amid the war is politically and morally unacceptable and could raise security concerns across the bloc. Latvia sports spotlight: Latvia’s men advanced in the FIBA 3x3 World Cup play-ins, beating New Zealand 21-19, setting up quarter-final action against Lithuania. Pay transparency deadline pressure: The EU Pay Transparency Directive is due by 7 June 2026, but many countries are lagging; Latvia is listed among those that have published draft laws, while others have taken no action yet. Riga tech and identity: IDenfy added Smart-ID to its electronic identity verification platform for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, aiming to let businesses verify customers using everyday mobile IDs.

Riga Finance & Energy: The EBRD’s annual Board of Governors meeting is underway in Riga, with EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying talks will focus on support for Ukraine and Moldova and how the bank is expanding globally, including technology priorities. Green Transition: EBRD also approved a €26m loan to Next Biogas (Host Group) to convert a Lēdurga biogas plant into a major biomethane facility, targeting grid injection and exports. Battery Boom: Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Sunly signed contracts for four Latvia battery energy storage projects totaling 490 MWh, with the first due in Q1 2027 and cybersecurity compliance cited as key. Defence Cooperation: Latvia and Ukraine are drafting a long-term deal to deepen work on drone tech, air defence, cybersecurity, and defence-industry integration. EU Border Politics: Latvia is among countries pushing the EU to tighten Schengen tourist visa rules for Russians, arguing current issuance remains too uneven. Local Business: Bank of Latvia approved LAU Infra Group’s IPO prospectus; subscriptions start June 10 ahead of Nasdaq Riga listing. Tech & Identity: iDenfy added Smart-ID to its identity verification platform for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

Armenia–Latvia Trade: The first shipment of 5,500 roses from Armenia has arrived in Latvia, with EU officials calling it a boost for Armenian exporters and a sign of deeper EU-linked ties, timed with new direct flights. EU Sanctions Fallout: The European Commission says Russia’s restrictions on Armenian goods are “economic coercion” and is preparing an aid package of over €50m, including measures to ease trade in agri-food and support flower exports. Latvia Finance: Latvia raised €1bn via a seven-year sustainable government bond sale, selling at a 3.525% yield to fund climate and inclusion goals. Riga International Spotlight: The EBRD’s annual Board of Governors meeting and business forum is underway in Rīga, focusing on Baltic competitiveness, resilience, and support for Ukraine. Security & Air Policing: French Rafales intercepted multiple Russian aircraft over the Baltic in NATO Baltic Air Policing, citing flights without plans or radio contact. Sports (Latvia): Latvia’s men advanced in the FIBA 3x3 World Cup after wins over Czechia and Mongolia, setting up a play-in clash with New Zealand.

UN Security Council Vote: Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, Zimbabwe and first-timer Kyrgyzstan won non-permanent seats for 2027-28, while Germany suffered a major setback in the election. Latvia-EU Foreign Policy: 11 EU countries led by Sweden, including Latvia, signed a push for tougher Russian tourist visa rules ahead of summer, arguing “no more shopping weekends” while Ukrainians fight. Security on Latvia’s Border: Latgale is adjusting to repeated drone incursions and air-raid alerts that have disrupted exams and events, raising fears of spillover from the Ukraine war. Energy & Climate: Latvenergo plans to donate decommissioned TEC-2 equipment to help rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, pending regulatory approvals. Renewables Deal: Sunly opened a 54 MW solar park near Valmiera as part of a hybrid solar-wind-battery plan, with a major battery storage partnership involving Rolls-Royce. Economy & Markets: Latvia’s State Treasury raised €1 billion via a 7-year sustainable bond issue, with demand topping €2.4 billion. Local Economy: Latvia’s industrial production rose 7.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing and electricity/gas among the drivers.

Defence & Drones: Latvia’s new Defence Minister Raivis Melnis says drones entering Latvian airspace must be intercepted and destroyed, stressing the need for a wider network of surveillance, detection and interception—not just one counter-drone purchase. Regional Security Cooperation: Ukraine says it will send counter-drone specialists to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania to share operational know-how and interceptor-related expertise after repeated drone incidents near the region. NATO Nuclear Deterrence Talks: Poland and Lithuania confirm early discussions on their potential role in NATO nuclear deterrence built around U.S. weapons in Europe, while Poland denies any plan to host nuclear arms. UN Diplomacy: The UN General Assembly elected Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe to the Security Council for 2027–28, with Kyrgyzstan winning its first seat since joining the UN in 1992; Germany failed to secure the Western European spots. Weather Watch: Summer-like warmth continues in Latvia, with temperatures up to around +26°C, but rain and thunderstorms are expected to increase toward the weekend. Riga & Latvia Business/Tech: Baltic Fintech Days in Riga featured talks on embedded finance, payments regulation and compliance, with Latvian and regional leaders discussing how fintech models are evolving under MiCA and other EU rules.

Ukraine-Russia War & Baltic Security: Ukrainian drones struck St Petersburg ahead of Putin’s flagship economic forum, with Russian authorities saying dozens were intercepted; the attack disrupted mobile internet and briefly closed Pulkovo Airport, while air alerts were reported in Latvia and Estonia. Latvia’s Defence Industry: Latvia and Finland signed an agreement to develop a common protected military vehicle system (CPV) over three years, aiming for future serial production and deeper procurement cooperation. Local Economy & Infrastructure: EBRD cut growth forecasts for Latvia and warned about risks tied to Rail Baltica and airBaltic, as Latvia’s GDP outlook softens amid higher energy costs. airBaltic Update: airBaltic losses topped €70m in Q1, and management says the 2026/2027 winter season may need €100–€150m in extra funding. UN Diplomacy: Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Zimbabwe won UN Security Council seats; Germany failed to secure one. Riga & Aviation Connectivity: airBaltic resumed a seasonal Riga–Aberdeen route, adding summer connectivity for business and leisure travelers. Public Life: Daugavpils’ 751st birthday festival runs June 5–7 with extra public transport and free rides on June 6–7. Business Leadership: Ammunity appointed Kaspars Pollaks as CEO from June 1, focusing on capacity and end-user cooperation.

Latvia-Russia Trade: Latvian PM Andris Kulbergs says he will order a plan to end export and import of goods with Russia, while allowing possible exceptions for sectors like pharma that can’t quickly switch markets. Security Alerts: An air threat warning for Alūksne municipality was issued early Wednesday and then lifted around 6:20 a.m.; NATO jets were scrambled and residents were told how to act under yellow/orange alerts. Energy & Industry: A new hybrid wind/solar-style energy project opened in Līvāni: Vindr’s 3.4m-euro park pairs 6,000+ solar panels (4.25 MWp) with battery storage (3.7 MW/7.5 MWh) to boost grid stability. Local Environment: Baldone authorities moved to shut down a quail farm after long-running odor complaints from residents. Sports (Latvia in focus): Latvia is set for the FIBA U18 Women’s EuroBasket 2026 in Stockholm (Aug 1–9), with Latvia in Group D alongside Serbia, Croatia and Poland. Weather: Wednesday in Latvia looks warm, around +21 to +26°C, with rain and possible thunderstorms in parts of Vidzeme.

Diplomacy in Riga: Serbia’s Milena Mitic presented her credentials to Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, taking up the role of Serbia’s first resident ambassador in Riga, with the embassy opening in the Baltic region. Ukraine support and EU security: Rinkēvičs met Ukraine’s PM Yulia Svyrydenko, stressing Ukraine’s EU accession would strengthen Latvia and Europe’s security, while Latvia also discussed expanding military cooperation and reducing UAV threats to Latvian airspace. Energy cooperation: Ukraine’s deputy PM Yuliia Svyrydenko said Latvia is accelerating equipment transfers from Latvian CHPPs to help restore Ukrainian energy facilities and prepare for the next heating season. Regional defence signals: NATO’s Spring Storm exercise in Estonia featured British Challenger 2 tanks near the Russia border, underscoring heavy-armour readiness along the Baltic frontier. Riga culture: The Chekhov Theatre Gallery will host Ieva Epnere’s solo exhibition tied to the Riga Photography Biennial 2026, running until Sept. 27. Business and infrastructure: Rail Baltica contract costs in Latvia were flagged as among the most expensive in the Baltics, while Latvia’s Tet began operating its SC7 data centre line in Salaspils ahead of schedule. Public safety: Drone alerts in Latgale prompted no mass panic, though some residents and investors are becoming more cautious.

Cybercrime: A Latvian national, Deniss Zolotarjovs, was sentenced in Ohio to 102 months for helping negotiate major ransomware attacks tied to Karakurt, TommyLeaks and SchoolBoys, including theft of sensitive personal data and disruption of a US 911 system. Security & drones: Latvia and Ukraine agreed to deepen cooperation on drone technology and energy security, with Ukrainian specialists set to advise Latvia on building a layered counter-drone defence; the deal follows repeated drone incidents that have already shaken Baltic politics. Ukraine war spillover: Russia launched major attacks across Ukraine, killing at least five and injuring dozens, while Romania reported a drone strike that injured residents and prompted urgent diplomatic steps. Local governance & infrastructure: Rīga inaugurated the extended Tram Line 7 and a new “Ķengarags” mobility hub, aiming to make transfers easier. Weather: Summer-like warmth returns, with temperatures climbing up to +26°C, plus fog risks overnight and scattered showers midweek. Sports: Day 1 of the FIBA 3x3 World Cup in Warsaw saw Serbia (men) and the Netherlands (women) start with perfect records.

Drone Defence Push: Latvia’s new PM Andris Kulbergs says Ukrainian drone warfare specialists will advise Riga on a long-term, layered air-defence plan after recent airspace scares. Public Safety & Security: Estonia has begun deploying stationary and mobile anti-drone detection systems along its eastern border with Russia, while Latvia is also moving to strengthen its own defences. Tragedy in the Mountains: Three Latvian climbers died after a fall near Denali Pass on Alaska’s Mount McKinley; one was rescued and airlifted to hospital. Economy & Work: Latvia’s unemployment rate hit 6.5% in April, and Eurostat data show Latvia among the higher workweek countries for women. Business & Transport: airBaltic’s new business plan is nearing supervisory-board review, and Polestar is expanding into Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. Social Snapshot: Eurostat reports Latvia has one of the highest shares of single-adult and single-parent households in the EU.

Energy & Costs: Riga mayor warns heat bills could rise as Latvenergo plans tariff changes for TEC-1/TEC-2, while electricity prices in the Baltics stay volatile, with power nearing €400 Monday evening. Weather Watch: Fog in parts of eastern Latvia, warm daytime highs around +16 to +21°C, then more unsettled conditions with rain and possible thunderstorms later in the week. Security & Drones: Baltic drone incursions are rising; experts debate whether Russia is rerouting drones via electronic warfare or whether they’re autonomous deviations. Estonia is rolling out stationary drone detectors along the Russian border, and Finland is testing emergency sirens with drone-warning protocols. Diplomacy & War Signals: Zelenskyy says Russia’s drone activity is political pressure and Ukraine is trying to intercept drones headed toward Latvia and other partners. Local Impact: Putin warns NATO’s Baltic members that threatened areas could be “legitimate targets,” adding pressure on Latvia’s security debate. Sports: Latvian goalie Linards Feldbergs earns MVP in Sioux Falls Stampede’s Clark Cup run; three Latvian climbers die after a fall on Alaska’s Denali.

Baltic Security: Estonia has started installing stationary anti-drone detection devices along its border with Russia, with plans to extend coverage across the whole frontier by end-2026, while mobile systems fill gaps; the move follows recent drone incursions that have also fed wider NATO counter-drone drills in the region. Ukraine War Watch: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told “Face the Nation” that Russia is preparing a major new wave of attacks, warning of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic strikes and urging Ukrainians to use shelters. NATO Command Shift: Reporting says the German-Dutch corps is set to take over NATO defensive command roles for Latvia and Estonia, with transition work underway. Diplomacy & Pressure: Russia says it will take Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the UN’s top court over alleged crackdowns on Russian-speakers, escalating a long-running dispute. Tragedy Abroad: Three Latvian climbers died and one was rescued after a fall near Denali Pass on Alaska’s Mount McKinley, with recovery efforts continuing. Local Economy: Eurostat data show Latvia still has one of the EU’s highest shares of workers in agriculture, at about 6% of employment.

Border Security & Drones: Estonia has activated its first stationary counter-drone detection and monitoring systems along three southeastern border sections with Russia, with full coverage planned by year-end, while mobile systems will fill gaps. NATO Command in the Baltics: Germany and the Netherlands will jointly lead a new NATO command centre in Estonia, with the 1 German-Netherlands Corps set to take over from mid-year to strengthen deterrence and eastern-flank defence. Latvia’s Ukraine Drone Support: The UK-led Drone Coalition, co-led with Latvia, says it has delivered 215,000 drones to Ukraine, including 45,000 FPVs and 150,000 interceptor drones. Tragedy in the Mountains: Three Latvian climbers died and one was rescued after a fall near Denali Pass on Alaska’s Mount McKinley; rescue shifted to recovery as the injured survivor was evacuated. Climate Resilience: Riga ranks among Europe’s most climate-resilient capitals in a new study, placing Latvia near the top alongside Vilnius, Tallinn and Helsinki. Undersea Infrastructure Defence: Seventeen countries launched GUIDE principles to protect critical underwater cables and energy links, with Latvia among the endorsers.

Latvia’s security at the center of the drone crisis: Latvia’s political leadership is again tied to the wider NATO drone fallout after a Russian drone hit a Romanian apartment block in Galati, injuring two and triggering NATO/EU condemnation and calls to speed up anti-drone transfers. Border hardening: Latvia is also installing “dragon teeth” anti-tank barriers on the border with Russia as hybrid threats and GPS interference fears grow across the Baltics. Denali tragedy for Latvian climbers: Three Latvian mountaineers died after a fall near Denali Pass on Alaska’s Mount McKinley; a fourth was rescued and airlifted, with the incident shifting from search to recovery. A Baltic-linked business move: EcoModular signed a framework deal with IDS and Riga-based Modul Consult to push modular building projects, including joint go-to-market and potential future corporate alignment. Justice crackdown: A Latvian-Ukrainian probe backed by Eurojust shut down a Kharkiv call-centre scam that stole over €100,000 from EU residents.

Border Security & Defence: Latvia has started installing anti-tank “dragon’s teeth” barriers along the border with Russia, with three-row concrete blocks and plans to expand anti-tank ditches as part of the Baltic Defense Line. Drone Spillover & Diplomacy: Russia’s drone strike on a Romanian apartment block near the Ukraine border injured two people, prompting NATO and EU condemnation and calls for stronger anti-drone defenses; Putin publicly questioned whether the drone was Russian, while NATO said it was of Russian origin. Regional Pressure on Moscow: The Council of the Baltic Sea States urged tougher pressure on Russia, including stricter sanctions enforcement and possible new measures like a maritime services ban on Russian energy exports. Latvia’s Politics: Nauris Puntulis returned as Latvia’s Minister of Culture in the new government led by Andris Kulbergs, after the coalition collapse earlier in May. Aviation & Business: Riga Airport selected international partners for a new 12-year commercial tender, including duty-free and food operators, while airBaltic marked 10 years of its Riga–Reykjavík route. Tech & Education: Tet is running a children’s cybersecurity workshop in Riga, teaching “super passwords” during the Children’s Day festival.